The Islamic Republic of Iran has defied Western efforts to topple its regime for over four decades. Despite crushing sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and even military threats, the regime has managed to cling to power. The reason, according to geopolitical analysts, lies in a strategic alliance between Iran and the global powers of Russia and China.
"This is the geopolitical iron triangle that guarantees Iran will not fall the way the West hopes," says Kamran Bokhari, director of analytical development at the Center for Global Policy. "Russia and China will never allow that to happen."
The reasons are rooted in the complex web of energy, trade, and global influence that bind the three countries together. For Russia, a pro-Western Iran would be a "strategic catastrophe" that would undermine its dominance over Europe's energy supply. China, meanwhile, sees Iran as a vital land bridge in its ambitious Belt and Road infrastructure project, as well as a critical source of oil imports.
"Geopolitics is not about friendship. It is about interests," Bokhari explains. "And Russia's and China's interests absolutely require that Iran does not become pro-Western."
Moscow has deepened military and intelligence ties with Tehran, providing advanced weapons, drone technology, and diplomatic cover at the United Nations. Beijing, for its part, has poured billions into Iranian infrastructure and continues to buy Iranian oil in defiance of U.S. sanctions.
The goal for both powers is not to save the Islamic Republic out of loyalty, but to prevent Iran from falling under Western influence. As Bokhari puts it, "If Iran aligns with the West, Russia loses its energy dominance in Europe. And without that dominance, Russia has no geopolitical power."
Similarly, a pro-Western Iran would threaten China's energy security and disrupt its grand Eurasian trade ambitions. "Without Iran, the Belt and Road does not connect," Bokhari says. "Without Iran, China remains vulnerable to naval blockades."
The analysts warn that even if the current Iranian regime collapses, Russia and China are poised to ensure that no pro-Western government takes its place. They would back nationalist or military factions to keep Iran in their sphere of influence, turning the country into a "Syria 2.0" - a proxy battlefield where external powers fight to prevent American dominance.
"The West is not prepared for this," Bokhari says. "There is no political will in Washington or European capitals for another Middle Eastern war."
As a result, the stalemate is likely to continue, with Russia and China providing the regime in Tehran the tools to survive. "Iran will not fall the way the West wants because Moscow and Beijing have decided that it cannot," Bokhari concludes. "And in geopolitics, what they decide matters a lot."